PS3 will dominate by 2012, 360 to trail far behind

DFC, a marketing research and consulting firm catering to the video game market, predicts in a recent report that the PS3 may lead the race in terms of software sales, despite the Wii having sold more units worldwide by the year 2012. The PS3, according to them, "is looking to make a strong play for 2009 and beyond. For software revenue, the PlayStation 3 looks to be a solid platform for the 2009-2012 time period."

Furthermore, the Xbox 360 may end up in third place: "Unless the Xbox 360 can kick it into gear in the fourth quarter and through 2008, the system will probably finish in a fairly distant third." In the best-case scenario, it just might end up in a tie with either console. A big challenge for the 360, DFC says, is building a strong userbase outside of North America.

So now you know when to buy a PS3. However, it's not likely to enjoy the same success had by the PS2 because of many factors; one of these is the growing popularity of non-console gaming (handhelds and PC). Whereas the PS2 has captured 70+% of the gaming market share, the three new consoles are predicted to experience similar sales over the next 5 years, apart from having to share the market with the steadily growing players of non-console gaming. If one console were to lead the race, it would probably be ahead by only 10-15%.

tl;dr: PS3 likely to win, Xbox will lose, but neither can beat the PS2.